India Inc lauds GDP numbers in Q4, expects trend to improve further

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The GDP growth during the third quarter of the fiscal was at 7 per cent. The country, which is classified as "lower-middle income economy" with a GNI per capita of $1,455 in 2017 by the World Bank, is expected to clock a 6.7 per cent GDP growth in 2018.

The minister further said that an huge growth in the field of manufacturing, agricultural and the construction has also been recorded, while highlighting that the manufacturing and construction areas also provide employment.

Asked about recent GDP growth downgrading by Moody's from 7.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent, he said the government would not revise GDP estimate of FY19, which is at 7.5 per cent.

The quarterly gross value added stood at 7.6 percent for the January-March 2018 period.

Banerjee of CII expect fresh investments as well as capacity creation in current fiscal as the demand cycle improves further based on tailwinds created by factors such as prognosis of a good monsoon, increased government spending and favourable global growth. "Our growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 per cent", the research claimed.

India also reported 4.7 percent growth in annual infrastructure output in April, signalling a recovery after it slipped to a three-year low of 4.2 percent in 2017/18.

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The growth in the "agriculture, forestry and fishing", "mining & quarrying", "manufacturing", "construction", and "financial, real estate and professional services" is estimated to be 3.4 per cent, 2.9 per cent, 5.7 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, the statement said.

"But as I had been saying in the past as well, there is no one to one relation between the oil price growth and the GDP growth".

"(It) seems like we have moved beyond the teething troubles related to GST implementation", said Tushar Arora, a senior economist at HDFC Bank.

Also, export-oriented industries particularly MSMEs in sectors like iron and steel, machinery and metal products, chemicals and agricultural goods are likely to take a hit. The International Monetary Fund expects economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018/19. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.

Domestic prices of petrol and diesel are near all-time highs, putting pressure on the government to bring down taxes on the fuels.

"A sustained rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel could even lead to a re-emergence of some of the external and currency risks that existed pre-2014", said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd.